Sustainable Future for Endangered Species? Predicting the Impacts of the Wilmar Policy on Bornean Orangutan Populations

Overview

Objectives/Goals The Bornean orangutan has been classified as endangered since 1986. They are threatened by illegal poaching and habitat loss, largely caused by land conversion to palm oil plantations. In December 2013, the world's largest palm oil trader, published a "No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation Policy." The objective of this study is to predict the effects of the policy on the sustainability of orangutan populations. Methods/Materials Using object-oriented Python, 36 orangutan habitats and their populations were mathematically modeled in 11 different scenarios with varying levels of logging, reforestation, and poaching as well as stochastic insertions of catastrophes and bonanzas and were used to produce 396 models with 100 replicates each. The sustainability of each scenario was analyzed. Results Without any intervention the Bornean orangutan populations could be extinct within 100 years. The only scenarios with sustainable populations are those with poaching is reduced from the current 4-12% annual rate. Sustainability doubles when poaching is reduced from 1% to 0.5%. There is an almost 10% increase in sustainability when additional protection of lowland mosaic is implemented. Conclusions/Discussion The Wilmar plan is necessary for orangutan survival when coupled with poaching management. - Unsustainable populations should be connected to other sustainable areas, or exchanged to industry for the protection of lowland mosaic. - The plan should be enhanced to include conservation of lowland mosaic, to provide a 10% increase in population sustainability. - A focused effort to reduce poaching to 0.5% must be initiated as soon as possible. Without intervention the orangutans may be extinct within 100 years. The urgency of this situation must be made clear so the species can be protected from extinction.

Awards (1)

• Honorable Mention

Competition history

• CSEF 2014 Environmental Science · Entry S1109

Resources

• CSEF project summary ↗

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