Silent Forests: Disentangling the Impacts of Climate Change and Deforestation on the Population of the Cerulean Warbler–A Public Data Analysis

Overview

Migratory birds visit our hometowns annually greeting us with sweet songs and reminding us of the passing seasons; migratory birds, however, are especially vulnerable to climate change. Among these birds is the Cerulean Warbler. Over the past 50 years, their population has decreased from 2 million to 500,000–about 70%. Previous methods for identifying the reason for this decrease (banding and tracking) are time inefficient and expensive. This study, instead, uses free, public data sets to determine correlation between the decline of the Cerulean Warbler, deforestation, and climate change. Using statistical tests, this study identifies a strong correlation between deforestation and temperature rises with the decline of the Cerulean Warbler. It shows that a major reason for the decline of the Cerulean Warbler is deforestation; furthermore it proves deforestation in South America and North America are occurring at the same rate, meaning reforestation efforts to save the Cerulean Warbler and other migratory bird s must be combined and with equal effort. A multiple regression formula using the correlated variables also serves as a way to predict Cerulean Warbler populations in the future as well as identify the amount of reforestation needed to restore the Cerulean Warbler population–120 billion hectares. Additionally, this project serves as a model for those seeking to identify reasons for population decline of any species. Public data sets are fairly unutilized in the conservation world, and this project gathers necessary data sets and serves as model to perform the same tests with other species.

Competition history

• JSHS 2024 Category not listed

Resources

• National JSHS abstract book ↗

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