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Are MVPs Really the Most Valuable Players?

ISEF · 2019 Mathematics

Hartsell, Chase · Lakeside High School

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Overview

The purpose of the experiment entitled “Are MVPs Really the Most Valuable Players?” was to test the accuracy of the sabermetric statistic known as wins above replacement (WAR). To test its accuracy, the researcher created his own statistic: Projected Difference in Wins (PDIW). This system provides a statistic that indicates how many more or less games the team would have won had a certain player been present for every game of the season (a definition that is similar to that of the WAR statistic). The researcher selected twenty players from the 2018 Chicago Cubs team and analyzed their statistics via the PDIW system (he then repeated the process with the 2018 Houston Astros team). The data yielded from the PDIW system indicated the WAR system was not consistently providing accurate results, according to its definition. Therefore, the researcher concluded that the WAR system is inaccurate and requires further examination.

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Source: Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair

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