Red County, Blue County: Are There Correlations Between a County's Demographics and How It Votes?

Overview

Objectives/Goals The goal of my project is to see if correlations exist between a county's demographics and whether the majority of the county votes conservative or liberal in elections. My hypothesis is that if a county has a larger and more ethnically diverse population, a higher median income and a higher high school graduation rate, then the majority of the county will tend to vote liberal. Methods/Materials I obtained demographic data from the US Census Bureau for all of the counties in California, Missouri and Virginia. I then compared the data to how each county voted on a specific ballot measure using a modified box-and-whisker plot. I then graphed the data. The measures I analyzed were chosen because they were hot topic issues and had clear conservative or liberal positions. Results In two of the three states which I analyzed, counties with a larger population usually voted liberal and counties with a smaller population typically voted conservative. In two of the three states, counties with a more ethnically diverse population often voted liberal and counties with a less ethically diverse population mostly voted conservative. In two of the three states, counties with larger median incomes mainly voted liberal and counties with smaller median incomes generally voted conservative. Lastly, in all three of the states, counties with higher high school graduation rates normally voted liberal and counties with lower high school graduation rates largely voted coservative. Conclusions/Discussion My hypothesis was mostly correct. I found four correlations between how counties vote and their demographics. A county's population, ethnic make-up and median income moderately correlate to whether the county votes conservative or liberal. A county's high school graduation rate, however, correlates even more strongly to whether the county votes conservative or liberal.

Competition history

• CSEF 2007 Behavioral & Social Sciences · Entry J0315

Resources

• CSEF project summary ↗

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