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Illegal Immigrants and Crime: The Hard Statistics

CSEF · 2018 Behavioral & Social Sciences

James D. Sunga · Desert High School, Edwards, Kern County

Overview

Objectives/Goals The objective of this study is to explore the potential relationships between illegal immigrant population percentage and the seven types of crime rates collected by the FBI. Methods/Materials Laptop computer with the Piface & Microsoft Excel 2016 programs. The FBI's 2014 Urban Crime Statistics. The PEW Research Center's Estimates of Unauthorized Immigrant Population, by Metro Area, 2014. Results The mean murder rate, burglary rate, robbery rate, and aggravated assault rates did not significantly change whether or not illegal immigrants comprised a small (<5) or large (>5) percentage of the urban population. The mean rape rate, petty theft rate, and motor vehicle theft rate all significantly changed as illegal immigrants comprised an increasing percentage of population. Conclusions/Discussion As illegal immigrants increased from 0 to 10% of the population, reported rapes decreased by 3808%, reported petty theft decreased by 18.8%, and reported motor vehicle thefts increased by 92.8%. It is not clear whether this is a reporting phenomenon or an incidence phenomenon (less crimes were reported vs. less crimes were actually occurring).

Summary statement

I found that as illegal immigrants comprised more and more of the population, reported rape decreased, reported petty theft decreased, and reported motor vehicle theft increased.

Help received

I designed the statistical comparison after reviewing some statistics books and searching the technique on the internet. A local statistician and friend of my father reviewed the method and results.

Competition history

  • CSEF 2018 Behavioral & Social Sciences · Entry S0417

Resources

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