Fit Over Wins: The NFL Quarterback Development and Coach Dynamic Analyzed

Overview

The NFL is a multi-billion-dollar industry where the success of one position can determine a team's fate, to be winners or losers. That position is the quarterback. Quarterbacks are taken in the first round where they are expected to be the face of the franchise and lead their team to the Superbowl. However, only 31% of NFL quarterbacks get a second contract with the team that drafted them due to poor performance. However, some NFL quarterbacks come back and find success with new teams. Why is this the case, is there something deeper that goes into quarterback development other than personal metrics? What if instead of evaluating players alone, what if other aspects of quarterback development was analyzed, such as coaching and surrounding talent? This project uses play by play data from nflfastR spanning from 1999-2026 and coaching historical data from Pro Football History and Pro Football Reference. Evaluating different aspects of coaching quality, a coaching and core talent grade metric was created. When graphed alongside historical quarterback performance, there is visible correlation between high coaching grade metrics and supporting roster, and quarterback performance. The 2018 NFL quarterback draft class was also dissected on a case study supporting the correlation found in the larger data set.

Competition history

• CSEF 2026 Behavioral & Social Sciences (Senior Division) · Entry S-03-02

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