Extreme Temperatures, Rising Risks: A Data Analysis of Temperature Trends and Correlation to Mortality in U.S. Cities

Overview

This study examines the relationship between rising temperatures and mortality rates across 20 major U.S. cities over the past five decades. Using historical climate data from the 1960s to 2025, we modeled long-term temperature trends through regression analysis and calculated mean absolute deviations to quantify climatic change. Mortality data from the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System (1961–2016) was analyzed to assess correlations between heat and death rates. Results confirm a significant rise in temperatures over the last half-century; however, no consistent positive linear correlation between mortality and temperature was observed, likely due to limitations in data coverage and modeling constraints. These findings underscore climate change as not only an environmental phenomenon but also a potential public health concern, highlighting the need for further research and strategies to mitigate its impact on human populations.

Competition history

• CSEF 2026 Earth & Environmental Sciences (Track 2) (Junior Division) · Entry J-09-21

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