Do Odds-Makers Make Accurate Predictions?

Overview

Objectives/Goals The objective of my project was to determine if odds-makers# predictions about sporting events were accurate and if they improved throughout the season. Methods/Materials The published scoreboard from the Union Tribune was used to develop a data table where I tracked fourteen through sixteen games per week the predicted point spread, and the predicted point total. After the games were played I recorded the actual point spread and the actual point total. With this information I computed the difference between predicted point spread and actual point spread and the difference between the predicted point total and actual point total. At the end of my experiment I analyzed the data so I could draw conclusions about the accuracy of the predictions. Results The winners were correctly predicted approximately 63% of the time. There was not a pattern with predicting total points throughout the season. Conclusions/Discussion The predictions improved slightly, though not significantly, over the course of the season.

Competition history

• CSEF 2004 Mathematics & Software · Entry J1220

Resources

• CSEF project summary ↗

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