DEVELOPING A NOVEL PREDICTION MODEL FOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMS USING A WAAS CAPABLE GPS

AJAS · 2022 Earth Science

Emily Jones

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Overview

A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth's magnetosphere that occurs when there is an efficient energy exchange from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth. These storms occur because of variations in solar wind that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Geomagnetic storm activity, along with the rest of the aforementioned error possibilities, can severely affect GPS signals, but some of this error can be lessened using the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). The objective of this research is to track and create a novel prediction model for geomagnetic storms by utilizing a Global Positioning System Receiver with WAAS capability. To complete this project, data was collected at three different sites, Berkeley, Red Bank, and Bay Head, for 90 days throughout three different seasons. During testing, readings would be taken with and without the WAAS capability turned on, and the error could be calculated. Additionally, space and atmospheric weather conditions were recorded for comparison purposes in statistical analysis. Utilizing ANOVAs and Regression statistics, a correlation was determined between geomagnetic storms and Planetary K-Index values, which was then used to create the prediction model.

Billboard Poster

You can view the billboard poster that I created outlining my research project above. For further information, scan the QR on the bottom left of the poster to view the full writeup I have created.

My Story

Attending a magnet high school that focuses on math and science, I was introduced to the research process my freshman year, where I conducted research in the health and medicine category. Then, during my sophomore year I completed a research project in the microbiology field to explore more of my research interests. It was also during my sophomore year that I devised the idea for my junior year project, the one I am currently presenting.

In May of 2020 during my Research Methods class, I decided I wanted to conduct research in the earth and space science field. From there, I did an immense amount of research online to determine prominent topics within the field, which is how I determined that I would research geomagnetic storms, a pressing issue in the space science field. Further, I decided I would determine how GPS devices are affected by these storms as their combination can be an issue of public safety.

After creating a general research plan for my class and settling on the topic I started planning my experiment in June. I decided on the GPS device I was going to use, the Etrex 10, and finalized my sampling locations, Berkeley Township, Red Bank, and Bay Head, New Jersey. Then, I confirmed my sampling methodology and testing dates with the first date being July 26, 2020.

After the summer, fall, and winter sampling sessions were completed, I worked on data analyses and creating my prediction model. Specifically, I ran all of my ANOVA and Regression statistics, and determined the prominent factors that I would be using to create my prediction model, which I then created on Google Forms. As this was the culminating piece of this research project, the main part of the research process was complete for me. The only thing that was left was completing my posters, write-ups, and other supplemental materials.

The last, and most important, step in my research journey for this project has been competing at science fairs and presenting at conferences. I have won numerous awards for this research at local, regional, and national fairs, and have been given the opportunity to present at many important conferences. Most notably, I competed at the 2021 New Jersey Academy of Science Research Presentation, where I received first place in the Earth Science category. This was an incredible experience for me to share my research, and it has allowed me to be a New Jersey delegate at the American Junior Academy of Science Presentation for 2022. I know this will be a very valuable experience, and I cannot wait to share my research with you.

Full Research Report

Please view the carousel of images above to see a research report that was created for this project.

Video

Please see the link above to watch a video about this research project. It gives an overview of my methodology and results.

Supplemental Materials

Please use the link below to view the website I created for this project. It contains my full background research, methodology, results and discussion. Full sets of the data collected, and other supplementary materials can also be viewed through this link. Additionally, you can see an expanded version of my research poster above.

https://ejonesmates.wixsite.com/research