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Can a Computer Predict a Human's Decisions?

CSEF · 2005 Mathematics & Software

Zarathustra E. Brady · Magnolia Science Academy, Reseda

Overview

Objectives/Goals To show that a human's behavior, even when he/she is trying to act randomly, is predictable, and to create a program which can model and predict a human's reactions in certain situations. Methods/Materials I tested this out with the game Rock, Paper, Scissors. I used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to create predictions of the human's choices given previous choices. People would play it in four different ways: short games where they saw the computer's choices, long games where they saw the computers choices, short games where they didn't, and long games where they didn't. Results After testing it on one hundred people, I found that the computer always won if the game was long enough, and did much better when the human did not see the computer's choices. Conclusions/Discussion A computer can predict a human's decisions. This shows that human's are predictable (statistically), and it is possible to model them with a computer.

Summary statement

I used a Hidden Markov Model to predict a human's choices in the game Rock, Paper, Scissors.

Help received

My computer mentors told me about Hidden Markov Models.

Competition history

  • CSEF 2005 Mathematics & Software · Entry S1202

Resources

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