Annual Patterns, Seasonal Shifts, and Modeled Trends in Polar Bear Observations in the Prudhoe Bay Industrial Footprint

Overview

Declining Arctic sea ice is rapidly altering polar bear habitat and increasing interactions with human activities. This study investigated how sea-ice loss influences polar bear movement and encounter risk at the industrial footprint in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Using 20 years (2000–2019) of sea-ice concentration data and industrial observation records, I analyzed the relationship between open-water conditions and annual polar bear encounters. Sea-ice metrics describing the duration of open water and marginal ice were evaluated using generalized linear models. Because the data were overdispersed, a negative binomial regression model was selected based on AIC criteria and diagnostic tests. Results show that polar bear encounters are strongly seasonal and have increased significantly over time (P < 0.001), rising by approximately 7.4% per year. The first annual sightings have shifted significantly earlier (P = 0.0029), indicating earlier movement onto land, while departure timing has not changed. Notably, sea-ice conditions from the previous year were strong predictors of current-year encounter risk. These findings suggest that sea-ice decline is driving earlier and longer land use by polar bears, increasing overlap with human activities. As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, this study demonstrates that long-term monitoring can predict high-risk encounter seasons, providing a valuable tool for Arctic wildlife management and industrial safety.

Awards (2)

• Fourth Award of $600 $600
• The Consortium for Mathematics and its Applications: Honorable Mention In-Kind

Competition history

• ISEF 2026 Animal Sciences · Entry ANIM050

Resources

• ISEF abstract page ↗

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