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Annual Patterns, Seasonal Shifts, and Modeled Trends in Polar Bear Observations in the Prudhoe Bay Industrial Footprint

ISEF · 2026 Animal Sciences

Zhang, Kevin · West Anchorage High School

Overview

Declining Arctic sea ice is rapidly altering polar bear habitat and increasing interactions with human activities. This study investigated how sea-ice loss influences polar bear movement and encounter risk at the industrial footprint in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Using 20 years (2000–2019) of sea-ice concentration data and industrial observation records, I analyzed the relationship between open-water conditions and annual polar bear encounters. Sea-ice metrics describing the duration of open water and marginal ice were evaluated using generalized linear models. Because the data were overdispersed, a negative binomial regression model was selected based on AIC criteria and diagnostic tests. Results show that polar bear encounters are strongly seasonal and have increased significantly over time (P < 0.001), rising by approximately 7.4% per year. The first annual sightings have shifted significantly earlier (P = 0.0029), indicating earlier movement onto land, while departure timing has not changed. Notably, sea-ice conditions from the previous year were strong predictors of current-year encounter risk. These findings suggest that sea-ice decline is driving earlier and longer land use by polar bears, increasing overlap with human activities. As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, this study demonstrates that long-term monitoring can predict high-risk encounter seasons, providing a valuable tool for Arctic wildlife management and industrial safety.

Awards (2)

  • Fourth Award of $600 $600
  • The Consortium for Mathematics and its Applications: Honorable Mention In-Kind

Competition history

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Source: Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair

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