Analyzing the Gulf of Mexico Deadzone by Modeling Variations in Nitrate/Productivity

Overview

In response to the ongoing Gulf of Mexico deadzone crisis, the following study attempts to model the root cause of the crisis by utilizing differential equations through the visual programming language, Stella Architect [ISEE Systems]. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone crisis is a direct result of nitrate fertilizer loading in the Mississippi River and therefore, nine differential equations, obtained from various studies, were used model nine primary aspects of the river’s ecosystem. To account for the effects of fertilizer loading, statistical analyses were conducted on over 30 years of United States Geological Survey data describing nitrate concentrations in the Mississippi River and a new equation was derived for nitrate concentrations. The new equation was expressed by enhancing the initial model and demonstrates how an increase in nitrate loading initially leads to an increase in primary productivity (an indicator of autotrophic growth), but eventually results in vast expanses of lifeless seawater, or dead zones. In the near future, this model can be used to determine acceptable nitrate concentrations, the effectiveness of potential solutions, etc.

Competition history

• AJAS 2019 Category not listed

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